Thursday, September 30, 2004

Sportsline's Top 50 players

They must not be looking at GRBE numbers. That's allz I can say.

Yahoo! Ready to Rumble

Yahoo!'s fantasy basketball site is up and accepting sign-ups...

Grant Hill to attempt comeback

Kind of sounds like many other rumors that have been flying around (Jordan, Drexler, Rodman)... except Hill is only 32 and has been training for this comeback since his surgery in March of 2003.

Here Peter May talks about him in another 'humanitarian' piece.

Fantasy Impact

Hill has actually finally given himself (and his ankle) enough time to recover. If it holds up, he should be able to play as well as any 32-year-old in the league. The article mentions that he was never below 19.9 ppg with Detroit. And even in his short stints with the Magic, he put up numbers worth talking about.

Hill will be the 2nd or 3rd option, presumably (after Francis, and Mobley, maybe). He'll probably be in front of Turkoglu with regard to taking shots. I'd peg him around 15 ppg, 7rpg, and 4-5 apg. Not bad numbers at all. Also consider that he shot 49% from the field and 82% from the free-throw line in his last 29 games.

If you're in a beginner league, you can probably grab Hill a little late, since most people will have forgotten about him by now. And even those who are aware may not be willing to take a chance on him. If it comes down to it, I'd rather take a chance on G-Hill than, say, C-Webb. That's probably a matter of personal preference, but I'll inject my personal preference since we're looking at a humanitarian piece.

Count it.

Stein: Dirk has his say

This article (by ESPN's Marc Stein) is an obtuse way to get fantasy information... But reading a story about a player can make it more interesting than simply looking at numbers. Something human about it.

Kamla on the Spurs

Here Kamla talks about the Spurs. Sure, when you're the Senior Editor and you've had the whole summer to write articles you can turn out several big ones a day. Maybe someday I'll have his job and I can take the summers off too. But I already posted my analysis of the Spurs. And I think it's every bit as good (and more concise) than Mr. Senior Editor's.

Seriously, though, I love Fanball. No disrespect.

Harris to sign with Cavs

Lucious Harris is reported to be signing with Cleveland.

Fantasy Impact

Harris averaged 7 pts, 2 reb, and 2 ast / game as the back-up SG in New Jersey (GRBE: 217.42). He'll be playing the same role with perhaps some added time at PG. The best to expect from him would be about 10 pts, 3 reb, and 2 ast / game.

Kings Analysis from Rick Kamla

Notable highlights include:

Rotation Analysis: Good news for fantasy owners, as all five starters should buzz around 35 minutes once again. Last year, Peja averaged 40.3, Miller averaged 36.4, Bibby averaged 36.3, Webber averaged 36.1, and Christie averaged 33.9. And because this team isn't as deep as it's been in recent years, there should be plenty of room for Jackson to log 30 minutes off the bench.

Kamla mentions something about Adelman keeping his 5 best players on the floor. I'll admit I haven't seen that much of the Kings, but from what I have, it seems like he's stuck more to the coaching style he had with the Blazers where he'd leave 5 players on the floor after they'd dug themselves a hole so they could dig themselves back out.
Player(s) to watch: I want to see how much better Miller is in 2004-05. He comes off a breakout season in which he averaged 14.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 51% from the field, yet I still think there's room for improvement. I realize Webber will play more than 23 games, but the loss of Divac should create more passing and scoring opportunities for Miller. Actually, I'll be surprised and a little disappointed if Miller doesn't dazzle us with 15-10-5.

Miller was just about the best sleeper there was last year. But you only get one year as a sleeper. Realize that his numbers are what they are, and draft accordingly. I have a feeling people will be high on him from last year and end up picking him too high.
Player(s) to fear: I don't fear Peja because—as annoying as it is—it's en vogue for players to demand trades these days. Just ask Shaquille O'Neal, Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Baron Davis, and on and on and on… The player I fear is Webber, who I just don't trust. When he gets rolling the fantasy stats are Garnett-esque, but he always seems to get injured at the worst possible time.

I always fear Webber. Just as I fear Vince (I've had him on my team several times, and he certainly does make for some nail-biting moments). And I fear any other players who are consistently injured. I wouldn't recommend against taking Webber, but I personally wouldn't take him, because I don't feel that the risk outweighs the benefit in his situation.

Wednesday, September 29, 2004

Fantasy Basketball @ AOL

Looks like more details are available on AOL's new fantasy basketball...

The highlights for me:
  • Free real-time scoring (I think this will be standard soon if AOL is offering it)
  • Keeper League Support
  • Head-to-Head scoring

I registered now to be notified when the game starts.

Amare Stoudemire: Could See Time At Center

Straight from the folks at Rotowire:

Suns president Bryan Colangelo said he sees the team's best combination with Stoudemire playing center, the East Valley Tribune reports. This group "could be your starting five or at least play significant minutes together," said Colangelo.


Fantasy Impact

The ability to use Stoudemire at center would be a boon to fantasy owners, however he is undersized for the position. If required to play there a lot, his numbers could suffer. Stoudemire resists the idea of making his living in the low post, but it would be the most efficient use of the Suns' resources. "It's not my natural position... but sometimes it will be to our advantage because we'll be quicker (than opponents) and I can still go into the post. If I'm called on to play center, I'll play it." In this scenario, Stoudemire plays center with Shawn Marion and Joe Johnson at forward with Quentin Richardson and Steve Nash in the backcourt.


It's nice when I can get other people to not only inform me of news, but also to do fantasy analysis for me! Then I stick it on here and it goes out (ideally) to everyone's RSS readers! Brilliant!


Tuesday, September 28, 2004

More on Mashburn

So, Jamal Mashburn (one season removed from his best) is done for at least this season... Who can say about the future?

Fantasy Impact

I said last time to not draft him. That much should be irrefutably obvious (btw: I don't think irrefutably is a word - so don't use it in a college application essay or anything).

In addition to taking Mashburn off your list, here's some other things to take into consideration:
1. Even though he only played in 19 games last year, he scored 20 points a game. That's 400 points that will go to other people on the team. Most of them will almost irrefutably go to Baron Davis. Jamaal Magloire, PJ Brown, and David Wesley will likely pick up the rest of the slack.
2. Mashburn played small forward. The only other irrefutable SF on the Hornets (according to Yahoo) is George Lynch.
3. David Wesley is irrefutably the second leading scorer on the team. That's kind of scary; and it also explains why Red Baron Davis will be taking on more of the scoring load.
4. Darrell Armstrong scored 10.6 ppg.
5. Mashburn and Magloire both have the initials JM.
6. David West could be irrefutably huge.

Count it.

Cavs Sign Scott Williams

For what it's worth... The Cavs signed FC Scott Williams.

Fantasy Impact

He's a FC. So, that's something... He'll be backing up the Illest Gauskas. He shoots freethrows poorly. And not much else.

Can you tell there's not much going on in the NBA world right now?

Monday, September 27, 2004

Update on Mashburn

It's safe to take him off your list, according to Marc Stein at ESPN.com:

Mashburn and the Hornets will announce later Monday that the former All-Star will spend this entire season on the injured list in hopes of making one last comeback attempt in 2005-06, league sources have told ESPN.com.


Fantasy Impact

Don't draft him.

Is it time to just say N.O. to Mashburn?


The Jamal Mashburn-New Orleans Hornets saga is coming to an end, as Mashburn's troublesome right knee pushes him further out of the Hornets' plans and possibly into retirement.

Mashburn, an All-Star forward, is scheduled to have another MRI exam next week. But unless the knee is substantially better, which seems unlikely, he will land on the injured list. He could stay there all year, he could return, he could be traded, he could retire. Who knows?


Fantasy Impact

There'll sure be more news when the results of Mashburn's MRI come back, but at this point, it's probably safe to take him off your draft list. This article lists Penny Hardaway, Allan Houston, Kerry Kittles'n'Bits, and C-Webb as a few other players who've had the same kind of knee trouble as Mashburn. While those guys are still productive, for the most part, they just don't measure up to what they were before the injuries. Kittles took a year off after his surgery - so perhaps Mashburn would be wise to do the same.



Sunday, September 26, 2004

Christie Out for a Month


Christie, a 13-year veteran who started every game for the Kings last season, underwent treatment on his foot Friday to relieve pain that bothered him for much of last season. He will be out of action for at least four weeks while recovering, but the team expects him to be healthy for the regular season.


Fantasy Impact

Since Doug C Fresh will be ready for the regular season, his 10 pts, 4 reb, and 4 ast should be safe.

Of Lakers and former Lakers

Malone not ready. Karl is said to be out for at least the first month or two of the season. I wouldn't expect any better numbers than what he put up last year even when he does come back.

Rick Fox to retire. As a single man. As the article says, Fantasy owners gave up on him a long time ago. Look for him rumors of his comeback to surface in another 2-3 years.


Friday, September 24, 2004

From around the league...

Bobcats move to secure Ely

Blake Injures Ankle (You'll have to log in for that one)


Steve Blake, a reserve guard for the Washington Wizards and former standout at the University of Maryland, will miss at least the first month of the upcoming NBA season after undergoing ankle surgery yesterday to remove a chipped bone, the team announced.


Fantasy Impact

He average 6 pts and 3 assists in his rookie season. Not bad, but he had potential to be a good backup PG in some leagues. He'll still be backing up Gilbertareno when he comes back, but missing the first month of the season makes him much less valuable (about 14.28% less valuable if you ask me).

Rockets guard Sura undergoes back surgery


A nine-year veteran who can play either guard spot, Sura averaged 7.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists in 80 games with Detroit and Atlanta last season. He came one rebound away from having three straight triple-doubles in April with the Hawks.


Fantasy Impact

Well, he's going to be in Houston now anyway, which has a lot more depth than the Hawks did last season. He'll be out for the first two weeks of the season, so move him down your chart as appropriate (7% less valuable due to missed games, and probably another 7% for his role on the Rockets).

Rodman? Comeback?

I guess it's better than Jordan coming back once again to tarnish his name further...

Dennis Rodman is thinking about a comeback, and the Denver Nuggets are giving him a shot. The 43-year-old former NBA rebounding champion briefly participated in a pickup game at the Nuggets' facility earlier this week but had to cut short the workout because of an ingrown toenail. General manager Kiki Vandeweghe told Rodman he was welcome to return once the injury heals. Rodman hasn't played in the NBA since the 1999-2000 season


Fantasy Impact

I don't know why the Nugs would trade for Kenyon Martin (other than they basically stole him from the Nets) and then invite Rodman to pick up with the team. How good can a 43-year-old rebounder be? Maybe he'd be good enough to give Martin the rest he needs... But we'll have to see what actually happens.

Wednesday, September 22, 2004

Indiana Pacers

I've become more efficient at throwing teams in the old GRBE database, so I've got another one ready to go today. I also realized that I'd better start getting through the teams faster since the season is breathing down my neck! (Right, cause it's only a month away)

So, here's the Indiana Pacers (I think there might be 1 or 2 more, but these are the most important ones)

Player GRBE
Jermaine O'Neal 628.83
Ron Artest 520.89
Stephen Jackson 511.45
Reggie Miller 333.04
Jamaal Tinsley 326.98
Jeff Foster 290.65
Anthony Johnson 220.96
Austin Croshere 189.18
Fred Jones 183.84
Jonathan Bender 158.00
Scot Pollard 95.56
James Jones 36.17

So clearly, Jermaine, Artesty, and Slashing Jackson are the players to consider here. Jamaal Tinsley is not a bad late round pick for PG. Fred "Don't Call Me Freddie" Jones and Jonathan Bender are likely to have increases in numbers this year. Miller Time might hit the bench this year, which will slide him down the ranks a bit...

If Jermaine is a FC in your league, he's a good pick and only going to get better (if that's possible).

Count it.

(Also: still no comments on how to pronounce GRBE)

Tuesday, September 21, 2004

Minnesota Timberwolves

Garnett. I can't say any more... I'm speechless... Garnett... So, sweet...

Player GRBE
Kevin Garnett 792.98
Sam Cassell 552.10
Latrell Sprewell 458.99
Wally Szczerbiak 249.54
Fred Hoiberg 248.42
Michael Olowokandi 228.12
Trenton Hassell 217.14
Troy Hudson 191.69
Gary Trent 174.75
Mark Madsen 162.93
Ervin Johnson 128.95
Oliver Miller 105.90
Darrick Martin 92.44
Keith McLeod 87.58
Quincy Lewis 34.00
Ndudi Ebi 20.00

This is an easy once, since the roster hasn't really changed since last season. So far, out of 112 players in the GRBE database, the Big Ticket has the highest GRBE. By 57.60 points. I haven't completed my analysis, of course, but when I do, I'll post all the results here in a HUGENORMOUS post that BLOW YOUR MIND.

So, yeah, the Alien and Spree should be on your draft list... somewhere far down the list from Garnett.

Count it.

Monday, September 20, 2004

Getting closer to the start of the Season

As it starts to almost be basketball season, people are coming back from summer vacation and starting to write more interesting articles on basketball. No fantasy analysis like you'll find here, but every piece will fit in the puzzle if your brain is big enough to hold them all.

Article on Bulls.blogspot.com:
http://bulls.blogspot.com/2004/09/how-to-get-your-bulls-article-noticed.html

Article by Sean Deveney (who also sometimes provides fantasy stuff) on where a 39-year-old Reggie fits with the Pacers:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=toughloveitstimetobenchr&prov=tsn&type=lgns

Another article by Deveney (on the Bucks acquisition of Mo Williams to fill TJ Ford's shoes):
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=friendshippaysoffforbuck&prov=tsn&type=lgns

Count it.

Reviewing the League

This article provides a good overview of who's on what teams (at least in the SE conference). They don't provide fantasy analysis, but it will at least give you something to read for now.


Sunday, September 19, 2004

San Antonio Spurs

Duncan. It bears repeating: Duncan. If you want to check out anyone else... go ahead and look at the numbers below. But do not forget Duncan.

Player GRBE
Tim Duncan 714.30
Tony Parker 424.88
Emanuel Ginobli 401.13
Brent Barry 397.19
Radoslav Nestervic 364.66
Bruce Bowen 254.57
Malik Rose 239.73
Robert Horry 207.98
Anthony Carter 130.80
Devin Brown 121.97
Jason Hart 120.02
Kevin Willis 95.98
Shane Heal 92.83
Matt Carroll 44.67

Nestervic kind of fell down on the job last year - the Spurs were hoping for a lot more from him. Perhaps this year he'll step it up. If he can step back up to his 2002 level of output, I think it qualified him as a sleeper candidate.

With Ron Mercer out of the picture, it appears that Half-Manu Half-Amazing will be the starting SG, so his numbers are likely to increase. That also means that Devin Brown and Brent Barry will have some room to fill. Barry will probably spend some time backing up Bruce Bowen as well, but not enough to get him to the 30.6 minutes he spent on the floor with the Sonics last season. I wouldn't expect him to get close to 400 again with the Spurs, but his 50% FG shooting and 83% FT% make him a good pick for leagues in which he can play GF.

Count it.

Friday, September 17, 2004

Drexler wants to be like Jordan - but older

So apparently, the Nuggets may actually be considering signing Clyde "The Glyde" Drexler to fill a spot at SG.

Fantasy Impact

Well, it hasn't happened yet... but the article clearly shows that Drexler doesn't plan to try to recreate his Hall of Fame career, so don't expect more than 20 minutes a game from him. He could still do some damage in that amount of time, especially if he's the first back-up SG for the Nuggets. I guess if Kevin Willis is still playing, Clyde can give it a try...

Here's a question: anyone know how long a player has to be "retired" for before they can go and sign with whatever team they want? This would solve a lot of problems of the Shareef and Vinsanity kind.

Count what?

Bobcats gain some experience with Steve Smith

You can read about it on ESPN.com

Fantasy Impact

Smith's GRBE (pronounced Grabby or Gribby? You decide with your comments!) is only 132.06. That puts him far below Laettner. I'll take a look at the Bobcats roster later on, but I'm pretty sure you won't have to worry about putting Smith on your draft card.

Christian Laettner to help Shaq up front?

This article from the Captain and Shaquille pretty well breaks down how Laettner performed last season with the Wiz.

Fantasy Impact

Laettner is supposed to help Shaq out up front... But I don't think he's going to help too many fantasy owners out in the same manner. His 6 pts, 5 reb, and 2 asts per game just aren't getting me anywhere near hot and bothered. BTW: His GRBE is 224.54 - which puts him at 67 out of the 76 players I've got in the DB so far. Not a good sign when you're already behind 66 players and there's 200 more to go.

Nets to Harris: You're Fired

So, Lucious Harris was waived (I know, it's old news, but I'm trying to catch up).

Fantasy Impact

Well, I wouldn't put him on your draft list until he's picked up by someone else.

Thursday, September 16, 2004

Give Me The Puck

Lockout just sounds bad, doesn't it? It's almost like an onomonapeie (in that it sounds like what is actually is). Lockout.

Fantasy Impact

Well, since hockey fans won't have their own sport to follow for a while, only the most hardcore of hockey fans won't turn to another sport for consolation. Sure, it's kind of like getting a bronze medal in the Olympics, but it's better than nothing.

Most of the so-called "hockey fans" will probably turn to football, since it involves a lot more checking (ed note to hockey fans: checking off receivers does not mean tackling them. Just so you don't sound like a hockey fan to all your football buddies).

However, there are probably some hockey fans who will take to watching basketball. Some of them may even join (your) fantasy leagues. This means that there will be more competition. If the lockout ends before the end of the basketball season, there is a chance that those hockey-fan-managed teams will lose focus and may be vulnerable. But in the two articles I read on ESPN.com, that doesn't sound highly likely.

Wednesday, September 15, 2004

Team-by-Team breakdown starting with the reigning NBA champion Detroit Pistons

As exciting as it would be to report on the possiblity of a trade between the Blazers and the Nets (Kidd for Shareef, in case you were wondering), I'm going to bust out some tangible number-type analysis. Starting with the top of the heap, I'm going to go through the GRBE numbers on a team-by-team basis to better prepare you for the upcoming draft.

I shall start with the "Power Rankings" according to an ESPN article from July 30th. I'll adjust my analysis for any transactions that have occurred since then, but I'm not going to try to redo the Power Rankings (cause that doesn't really have anything to do with Fantasy Basketball anyway).

So, first up is the Detroit Pistons!












PlayerGRBE
Ben Wallace498.37
Chauncey Billups491.81
Richard Hamilton452.36
Rasheed Wallace441.95
Tayshaun Prince349.32
Antonio McDyess237.60
Elden Campell182.94
Lindsey Hunter151.45
Darvin Ham 86.70
Darko Milicic78.50


There you have the Pistons in a nutshell. Any of the 400-level guys are draftable, but probably only Ben Wallace should be picked as high as round 2. Right now, with only a partial list of players I've got 24 who break the 500 barrier. Of course, #24 if Zydrunas Ilgauskas. And while he is the Illest Gauskas there is, I'd probably be inclined to take Wallace before him. Chaun-C is a pretty good pick in the early-middle rounds if you need to get a PG at that point. Dollar-Billups will give you 3-pointers, while the American Werewolf (aka Big Ben) guarantees blocks. And if you end up taking both of them, the FT% will probably average out in your favor.

The Other Wallace will probably remain in the same role he played last season, so I would expect similar numbers from him. Tayshaun Prince is still maturing, so he could get better, but the team is pretty well stacked as it is. Look to him if you need someone to play SF, because he'll give you a little bit of everything (not much, mind you, just a little).

Darko is not a bad candidate as a sleeper, but with the team the way it is (and the addition of McDyess), I wouldn't expect him to be a fantasy factor this season. But, he is the only Polish player in the NBA and he was my good luck charm last year.

That's all for now. I'll be back fairly soon with the San Antonio Spurs.

Count it.

Tuesday, September 14, 2004

Pacers sign Wright and Edwards

The Pacers signed their 2nd round pick, Rashad Wright, and a free agent center, John Edwards.

Fantasy Impact

Yeah, I'm really stretching here with this news... Wright, a 6-2 PG from Georgia will play backup to Jamaal Tinsley as well as Anthony Johnson. I had AJ on my team last year, and that was in an 18 team league. Sometimes the second rounders come through. And as I don't actually know anything about Wright, that's the best I can do. I'm going to say now that you can probably get away with not drafting him.

And it's possible that Edwards will be Vice Running the Country, so he should be pretty much a fantasy non-factor. Unless he can also communicate with dead people. There's not too many NBA players who can do that. Maybe he can get some advice from some of the big men in the sky and bring his game to a level that we have yet to witness.

You can almost hear the tumbleweeds coming

Things are so quiet around the NBA right now (at least this is what all my sources seem to be not telling) that you can almost hear the tumbleweeds headed down the street.

Listen... really closely... there. You hear that?

That's the sound of nothing.

Fantasy Impact

I'm going to start a rundown of every team in the NBA and who's worth looking at on those teams. But I do have a real job, and that's going to have to take precedence for now... You could keep checking back or you could just add this site to your RSS reader and it'll let you know when the latest fantasy new is ready to be pumped into your eyeballs.


ESPN's Marc Stein

This is about the only basketball article worth reading that I could find.

I'll try to scoop up some of Eddy Curry's fecal matter (aka Bullshxt) if I can. Cause that's what I'm here for.

Monday, September 13, 2004

Grizzles keep Tsakalidis

I like this quote from Grizzlies president Jerry West,
"Jake is an important part of the Grizzlies' future."

I hope no fantasy owner has to say the same thing about their team.

Sunday, September 12, 2004

Fantasy Basketball Forums

I've been checking out a few fantasy basketball forums recently and found that the one at FantasyRef.com not only has great features but is also swarmed with fantasy hoops players!

I've added a link to the side to it. I'll add others if I find them worthy.

Count it.

Saturday, September 11, 2004

TJ Ford slow to recover from injury

This article talks about TJ Ford's recover from his back injury.

Fantasy Impact

Ford's injury last year gave Damon Jones the chance to shine. Jones has since moved on to the Miami Heat, where he should have the chance to once again rack up the assists. Mike James will likely start in place of Ford for the Bucks if he hasn't recovered enough to play at the start of the season. James averaged 9.3 points and 4.9 assists last year in 81 games played, giving him a GRBE value of 325.30 (I'm going to start using that in my fantasy analysis until I can judge players by looking at those numbers).

Friday, September 10, 2004

Laettner not so golden anymore

Christian Laettner was let go by the Golden State Warriors. He came to the land of the sun and silicon in the trade that send Erick Dampier to the Mavericks. He got the Mavericks in a trade from the Wizards which also included Jerry Stackhouse.

Fantasy Impact

Laettner had 8, 6, and 1 steal on 49% FG and 83% FT shooting in 2002 for the Wizards. His 2003 season was not so great; his minutes dropped from 29 to 20 and he only played in 48 games. However, it is said the Heat are looking to shore up the frontcourt (which they traded away for the Big Dieter), and might be picking up Laettner. Depending on how much playing time he gets in Miami, his numbers will range from 6-12 points and 4-6 rebounds, and he's usually good for about a steal a game. He's got good FG and FT numbers (as mentioned above), but he doesn't take too many, so it's only a slight bonus.

If he does actually get signed by the Heat, I'll try a little harder to figue it out for you.

Thursday, September 09, 2004

The Great Roto Basketball Equation (GRBE)

Here are some sample values I computed using The Great Roto Basketball Equation:


  • Tracy McGrady: 735.37

  • Baron Davis: 667.88

  • Dirk Nowitzki: 664.86

  • Shaquille O'Neal: 641.24

  • Predrag Stojakovic: 638.99

  • Kobe Bryant: 627.88

  • Paul Pierce: 627.14

  • LeBron James: 599.22

  • Lamar Odom: 586.69

  • Zach Randolph: 570.32

  • Andrei Kirilenko: 566.56

  • Elton Brand: 557.61


This is by no means a comprehensive summary of the players I have put into the GRBE. But I believe it does a good job of showing that players who should be ranked higher indeed end up that way.

I especially like the fact that McGrady gets ranked ahead of everyone because he basically was his whole team last year, and that is reflected in the GRBE. Of course, I have yet to see how these players are ranked using last years stats by fantasy basketball sites (since most sites provide default rankings of players). But that will be taken care of fairly soon, as the beginning of the basketball season draws nigh.

One could argue: of course McGrady is going to be ranked ahead of Shaq, since all I did was put
more emphasis on things besides points and rebounds. I agree, one could easily create an Equation that would put Shaq on the top (since good centers _are_ hard to come by)... but the
fact that McGrady puts stats in categories that are much more difficult to come by (making them more important to Rotisserie leagues) puts him rightfully ahead of Shaq.

Everyone who's played roto basketball has probably said at one point or another: If I only had 3 (or maybe 4) more 3 pointers, I'd pass those two guys and get enough points to move up a couple spots. How often do you get to say the same thing about points or rebounds?

Wednesday, September 08, 2004

"No comment"

I guess my Great Roto Basketball Equation hasn't quite caught on yet... That or this site doesn't get enough traffick [ed: He spelled that wrong on purpose] to generate any comments... Maybe once the season rolls around and people can actually use it to calculate the worth of players without having to type the entire NBA into a spreadsheet, it'll generate a little more chatter.

And for anyone who's wondering, I plan on putting my money where my mouth is and ordering my draft list using the GRBE. I wish there was a way I could draft using the GRBE list and one where I could draft whoever I wanted and have all the other teams make the same picks they otherwise would have and then see how the season goes in both leagues to do the ultimate comparison. But I'm not sure there's a real way to test the GRBE (as it has yet to be unproven). Now I'm getting all scientifical about it any people are probably like "What a freak!"

But I still have the best fantasy basketball advice. And the only fantasy basketball advice with an RSS feed.

Count it.

Tuesday, September 07, 2004

Bill Simmons on Fantasy Addiction

If you know how he feels, you're a real fantasy player. Of course, he's talking about baseball, which - at least from my experience - is much more involved than most basketball leagues.

That said, I have not only watched Blazers' games with friends saying "As long as Brad Miller scores or gets the assist, it's okay for the Kings to score", but I have also cheered for Dwyane Wade at the United Center during a Bulls game. Granted, there were other people cheering for him, but I think probably all of them were related to him.

I'd love to hear reader's (I know somebody read this weblog) stories of desire for the demise of a home team (or adopted home team, former home team, etc.) in favor of fantasy players.

Monday, September 06, 2004

Moving Mountains (Mutombo for Piatkowski)

Somehow, the Rapid City Journal got the jump on this story... Evidently Eric Piatkowski is from Rapid City, and my guess is he's the biggest name to come out of there since... well, ever.

ePiat (clever, no?) is going to the Bulls for Mt. Mutombo. Coming with Piatkowski are F Adrian Griffin and PG Mike Wilks.

Fantasy Impact

Mutombo will be marginalized by backing up the Ming Dynasty in Houston. Yao increased from 29 to 32 minutes last season, and that leaves Mutombo with only 16 minutes; down from his 23 in Zoo York. With only 5.6 and 6.7 rebounds to his name - despite a tremendous 1.9 blocks - most of Mutombo's fantasy value is jettisoned like rocket fuel after launch.

Piatkowski on the other hand, will probably be given some good minutes splitting time at both SF and SG positions with Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, and Eddie Robinson. He's got more experience than Deng and Gordon (obviously, since they're rookies), so he might even get to start at the 2 spot. With he and Hinrich at the guard spots, that gives the Bulls a strong inside-outside combination (if Curry and Chandler can step it up to provide the "inside" portion).

Piatkowski's numbers should look something like his seasons with the Clippers where he had 10 points, 2 rebounds, and 1 assist with good (aka helpful) FG, 3P, and FT %'s (47, 40, 82, respectively).

Count it.

Sunday, September 05, 2004

In other heavy news (Eddy Curry shed some pounds, too!)

Looks like Eddy Curry is dropping weight like it's going out of style too! Curry reports that he (making it easy to doubt the source, of course) is down to 285, making Shaq look somewhat porky.

I'm going to use the same picture of Curry I already posted... just to make it easy.


Drop It Like It's Hot (Shaq's down to 325!)

In case you didn't think Shaq was going to dominate in Miami, he has reportedly dropped 24 pounds to a fighting weight of 325. That's still enough mass to throw at anyway who gets in his lane, and also to attract small planets, but it also means he should have more mobility and potentially less foot problems in the upcoming season.

Saturday, September 04, 2004

Rotisserie Analysis (Part 2 of Infinity)

So, it appears I was somewhat off in my initial calculations of player value. Apparently, the whole inverse percent thing was a little too dramatic. I like Kirk Hinrich and all, but he kept coming up way too close to the top to make it realistic. So, I've changed the inverse percentages to just straight up coefficients. Here's the new equation I've got so far:

17*3PM + 7.32*REB + 8.68*AST + 20*STL + 30*BLK - 13*TO + 4*PTS

Take that equation and divide it by the number of games a player has played and you get a fairly accurate representation of how valuable that player is.

Other calculations:

I've also added a couple other "bonus" calculations... These include:
+10 to the per game avg (as per above) if the player starts more than 75% of the time
+25 pts for FC's, +15 for GF's, +5 for G's and F's, and 0 for everyone else
+30 for 72+ games played, +20 for 62+ games played, and +10 for 52+ games played

I'm working on a way to factor in field goal and free throw percentages.

Can you tell I'm into this?

Count it.

Friday, September 03, 2004


Here's a picture of Eddy Curry. I'm just testing out Hello to see about posting pictures. Cause then I won't have to leech off other sites pictures, which is always a good thing. Posted by Hello

Centers in Motion (Mourning, Mutombo, briefly...)

It sounds like Mourning will be playing for the Nets this season... Also, Mt. Mutombo appears to be headed to Houston bringing Eric Piatkowski, and Adrian Griffin to the Bulls.

Fantasy Impact

We're gonna have to wait and see on this one. We've still got a month to determine what kind of fantasy factory Mourning will be. And I'll assess the impact of Mutombo going to Houston and E-Piat coming to Chicago when the trade actually goes down.

Wednesday, September 01, 2004

Rotisserie Basketball Statistical Analysis (Part 1)

Beginning a Rotisserie Analysis

Now, though I prefer head-to-head leagues, I know there probably more Rotisserie leagues out
there (in addition to other kinds that I don't even know about); so, I'm starting a statistical
analysis aimed at Rotisserie leagues which I hope will result in a way to value players based on
what they provide their fantasy teams. If the stars align (let me go check my moon calendar),
the results of this intensive study will be applicable to leagues outside of the Roto World.

The premise of my analysis begins with the realization that some stats - like Blocks and 3-
pointers - are more rare than others, say Points. My attempt at equation development jumps off from there... I hope people can understand it. I am happy to take any constructive criticism
and/or comments. That's why comments are enabled and there's a link to my email in the sidebar.

Without Further Ado

I started by totalling up common Roto categories for the entire NBA: 3-Pointers Made, Total
Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, Turnovers, and Points. Each of these categories was used as
a numerator in determining the percentage of total overall stats (I don't know how to say that
any better). Perhaps an example: The total number of Points scored in the league last year was 222,097. The total number of stats (for the denominator) was 439,612. So: 222,097 / 439,612 = 50.52%.

The percentages I came up with are as follow:
3PM: 2.8
REB: 22.83
AST: 11.52
STL: 4.29
BLK: 2.73
TO: 8.10
PTS: 50.52

The relative-value-of-rarer-stats light went off in my head last season, but I didn't know I'd
be writing a fantasy basketball weblog at that point, so a lot of the data I had was lost. So,
I decided to work on this during the off-season and post my work up here to hopefully stimulate
some conversation from people who might have done some work in this area before.
As a rough draft of my "equation" for calculating players' values I took the inverse of the %
and multiplied that by the player's actual stat total for that category. This method places
more emphasis on the rarer categories, and I hope will represent a true Roto value of a player.
I have only worked this equation mojo on a couple players so far, so I will post later with a
larger sample of results. I just wanted to post this to see if any readers had anything to say.

Blazers re-sign Darius Miles

Hmmm... Darius Miles is 22. That means he'd be graduating from college pretty right about now, right? Seems like a pretty prime time for a breakout season. Good choice by the Blazers to re-sign him.

Fantasy Impact

Miles scored 12.6 points and gathered in 4.6 rebounds last season after joining the Blazers. I'll give you good odds that he'll make those numbers again this year, and probably improve on them. A constraint on his points will be the addition of Nick Van Exel and the continued development of Zach Randolph. Miles does bring other fantasy value (soon to be calculated) to the table in the form of his FG shooting and ability to distribute the ball. The flip side of the NVE/Zebo coin is: with scorers like NVE and Zebo in the starting line-up with him, Miles' assists are likely to increase. So, if there's two sides to the coin of playing with scorers, how many sides are there to playing with a basketball?

Bulls Rookies

Here's a good piece on the Bulls rookies this year. Maybe only interesting if you're a Bulls fan, but maybe getting to know them better will make you want to draft them. As has been said many times before: draft players you like and you'll do better because you'll have more of a connection and dedication to them.